AWEA Wind Resource & Project Energy Assessment Conference 2016

September 27 - 28, 2016

Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel, The Depot | Minneapolis, MN

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Tuesday, September 27

7:30 AM - 5:30 PM

Registration Open

7:30 AM -  8:30 AM

Networking Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 8:45 AM

Welcome & Opening Session: Conference Program Chairs

Melissa Elkinton, Head of Section, Energy Assessment, DNV GL – Energy
Brian Healer, Vice President of Development Services, Renewable Energy Systems Americas Inc.

8:45 AM - 10:15 AM

Time-Series Energy Modeling and Validation
Accurately modeling wind flow and wind farm behavior continues to be a challenge for the industry, especially in complex flow conditions. In the past, the majority of the industry have utilized annual frequency distributions to initialize the wind flow models that predict the spatial pattern of the wind resource.  In the past few years, the idea of time series energy modeling has been studied and discussed in order to better define wind farm behavior in a variety of atmospheric conditions.  This session will review new and existing modeling techniques that attempt to capture farm energy on a time series basis, how they are being validated using real wind farm data, and what real world applications this type of data can be useful. 

Session Chair: Patrick Pyle, Director of Meteorology, Pattern Energy Group LP
Phillipe Beaucage, Lead Research Scientist, AWS 
Modeling the Dynamic Behavior of Wind Farm Power Generation – Building upon SCADA System Analysis
Matthew Hendrickson, Global Manager of Assessment, Vaisala Inc.
Round-Robin Validation of Spatial Wind Modeling at a Site with Fifteen Met Towers
Carl Ostridge, Validations Engineer, DNV GL
Modeling Wind Farm Energy, Revenue and Uncertainty on a Time Series Basis
Gil Lizcano
R&D Director, Vortex
WRF LES Time-Series Energy Modeling and Validation
Panelist: Zack Irons, Manager, Project Design and Evaluation, Wind Center of Excellence, Enel Green Power

10:15 AM - 10:45 AM

Networking Break & Exhibits

10:45 AM - 12:00 PM

Prospecting in Today's Wind Industry
The initial stages of development some years ago were primarily driven by identifying promising areas on a wind map.  The industry has evolved and a greater sophistication is applied to prospecting for development sites in the modern age.  This session will explore the challenges and opportunities in today’s industry from public perception, technology applications, policy, offtake, congestion, and more.  

Session Chair: Matt Meyers, Vice President of Wind Yield Assessment, E.ON Climate & Renewables North America
Matt Jacobs, Vice President of Portfolio Growth, Tradewind Energy, Inc.
Chad Ringley, Director, Energy Analytics, Pattern Energy Group LP
Brian Healer, Vice President of Development Services, Renewable Energy Systems Americas Inc.
Jeffrey Nemeth, Senior Project Manager, EDP Renewables North America LLC 

12:00 PM - 12:30 PM

The Wind Resource Assessment Benchmark Project

Speaker: Erik Hale, Director, Wind Assessment, EDF Renewable Energy  

12:15 PM - 1:45 PM

Networking Lunch & Exhibits

1:45 PM - 3:15 PM

Perspectives from Offtakers
We live in a price-sensitive environment, with offtakers looking for good deals on wind PPA's. Wind resource has a huge impact on price: a 1% bump in NCF results in about a $2/MWh decrease in price. So how do offtakers think about wind resource? Are they focused on just the lowest price - and so, by inference, the windiest site? How do they pick between a high wind site and one with good Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP)? Do they view ultra high NCFs as risky and likely to lead to a request for price increase? 

Session Chair: Shalini Ramanathan, VP Origination, Renewable Energy Systems Americas Inc.
Franco Albi, Manager, Integrated Resource Planning, Portland General Electric 
Tim Kawakami, Director, Purchased Power, Excel Energy
Todd Bartling, Vice President of Renewables Development, National Renewables Cooperative Organization
Emily Williams, Director of Energy Supply, Altenex

3:15 PM - 3:45 PM

Networking Break & Exhibits 

3:45 PM - 5:15 PM

Seven Minutes in Open Session Heaven
Seven different presenters will give 7 minute talks covering a vast range of exciting topics. This session will feature something for everyone. Measurements, modelling, uncertainty, and new technologies will all be featured. Conceived as a means of including more speakers and organizations while also offering the widest array of topics yet, this session aims to prove both entertaining and educational.

Session Chair: Jared Kassebaum, Manager, Energy Team, EDF Renewable Energy 
Mark Handschy
, Chief Scientist, Enduring Energy, LLC
The Wind’s Fat Years and Lean Years
Nikhil Kondabala, Senior Energy Applications Engineer, Apex Clean Energy, Inc.
Machine Learning for Met-Data Cleaning
Sebastien Trudel, Manager, Operational Assessment and Measurements, EDF EN Canada
Icing Losses Estimate Validation: From Development to Operation
Alexandre Kapetanovic
Uncertainty: Nothing about Risk is Normal
Peter Stamus, Associate, V-Bar, LLC
The Impact of Global Re-Analyses Datasets on Long-Term Wind Speed Prediction from Mesoscale Models
Eowyn Baughman, Wind Energy Analyst, Vaisala Inc.
Error Distributions, Tails, and Outliers 
Jack Kline, Consulting Meteorologist, RAM Associates
Wake Model Validation Study
Robert Maxwell, Resource Assessment Director, Oak Creek Energy
Demonstration of the Uncertainty Reduction Effects of a Met Campaign

5:15 PM - 5:25 PM

Special Presentation: AWEA Technical Achievement Award Presentation

5:25 PM - 6:25 PM

Poster & Networking Reception Sponsored by Renewable NRG Systems

Wednesday, September 28

7:30 AM - 5:30 PM

Registration Open

7:30 AM - 8:30 AM

Networking Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 10:00 AM

Getting it Right - for the Right Reasons - and Looking Ahead to the Next Unknown Challenge

Significant progress has been made in the last several years towards erasing any gap between actual and predicted wind plant production.  Despite this progress, legitimate questions linger about whether long-term energy predictions are tracking actual output for the wrong reasons.  If this is the case, it raises further questions about the wind industry’s ability to maintain energy assessment accuracy when the next big challenges emerge. This panel of experts will debate whether we are ‘getting it right for the right reasons’ and shed some light on what resource assessment challenges we need to tackle that we do not yet face.

Session Chair:  Clint Johnson, Senior Vice President, DNV GL - Energy
Eric White, Executive Director, Tax Oriented Investments, J.P. Morgan
Kevin Walter, Vice President of Meteorology, Tradewind Energy, Inc.
Maggie Pakula, Manager, Performance Analytics, Invenergy LLC
Christopher Ziesler, Vice President, Consulting Services, AWS Truepower, LLC

10:00 AM - 10:30 AM

Networking Break & Exhibits

10:30 AM - 12:00 PM

Wind Farm and Turbine Performance

An on-going topic of interest for wind energy assessment practitioners relates to the wind turbine’s ability to generate energy in agreement with the sales power curve that is supplied in early planning phases of large projects.  In this session, we will continue prior years’ session topics to discuss a range of factors that impact turbine performance – whether on an individual or plant-wide basis.  This session’s topics will range from technical to commercial and include a discussion among experienced panelists that aims to provide an understanding of the issues by covering background, current issues, and questions for future consideration.

Session Chair:  Dan Jaynes, Director, Energy Resources, Avangrid Renewables
Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
PCWG Update and 2016 Roadmap Presentation   
Dan Bernadett
, Chief Engineer, AWS Truepower
Comprehensive Service Agreements: Do they lead to higher availability?
Alex Head, President & CEO, Prevailing North America LLC
Which Wind Regime Parameters Have the Largest Effect on Turbine Performance and How Can We Estimate it From Site Data?
Cegeon Chan, Senior Performance Engineer, DNV GL Energy
How Valuable is that Turbine Enhancement?

12:00 PM - 1:15 PM

Networking  Lunch & Exhibits

1:15 PM - 2:45 PM

Expecting More from Wind Flow Models

Wind flow modeling is widely considered to be the largest single source of uncertainty in wind resource assessment. However, there have been no statistically significant, independent analyses of wind flow model accuracy which evaluated the primary models used in the North American market. This session will explore the state of wind flow model validation with thoughts from those who understand industry models best, and also those with an outsider's view of how to look at the problem.

Session Chair:  Erik Hale, Director, Wind Assessment, EDF Renewable Energy
Dr. Andrew Mercer, Associate Professor, Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University 
An Academic Approach to Wind Flow Modeling and Verification
Craig Schwartz, Research Meteorologist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Can High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts Improve Wind Flow Modeling?
Mark Stoelinga, Senior Scientist, Vaisala Inc. 
Errol Halberg
, Wind Resource Engineer, WSP

2:45 PM – 3:15 PM

Networking Break & Exhibits

3:15 PM - 4:45 PM

Measurement Campaigns and Remote Sensing

The aim of this session is to explain the basis of the elements which contribute to making a robust and bankable measurement campaign.  The session will have two short presentations and then a panel discussion of several industry experts who have wide experience in designing and overseeing measurement campaigns.  We will discuss and debate such topics as: ensuring value-for-money in equipment selection; designing high quality met campaigns to minimize uncertainty; the importance of good maintenance practices; how to assess the benefits of the latest equipment offerings; exploring the value of remote sensing equipment; and, achieving consistency across your development portfolio.

Session Chair: Christopher Ziesler, Vice President, Consulting Services, AWS Truepower, LLC
Brandon Storm, Senior Meteorologist, Tradewind Energy, Inc. 
Matthew Breakey, Wind Resource Engineer, WSP Canada Inc.
David Balfrey, Vice President of Technology and Energy Assessment, Apex Clean Energy, Inc. 

4:45 PM - 5:00 PM

Closing Session: Conference Program Chairs

Melissa Elkinton, Head of Section, Energy Assessment, DNV GL – Energy
Brian Healer, Vice President of Development Services, Renewable Energy Systems Americas Inc.

*Program and times are subject to change.  Speakers and sessions details TBA.*

 

Wind Resource & Project Energy Assessment Seminar Posters
Poster Chair - Grant Qualley, Pentalum Technologies

Javier Magdalena,Solu+e
Comparison of New Wind Flow Model FUROW with WAsP and OpenFoam for Different Topographic Features

Per Nielsen,EMD International A/S
Introduction to a “New” Energy Calculation Concept with Calculation in Time Illustrating the Advantages

Julian Quick, NREL
Making the Case for Robust Optimization in Wind Plant Design

Philippe Royer,Leosphere
Reducing Offshore Modelling Uncertainty by Using Scanning Doppler Lidar

Weselley Slaymaker, WES Engineering Inc.
Wind Turbine Wake Losses, Predicted Versus Actual Performance with Two 100m Hub Height Wind Turbines

Mackenzie Tocco, Natural Power
Optimizing Pre-Construction Energy Yield Analysis for Operational Budgets

Scott Wylie
, ZephlR Lidar
Influence of Site Complexity and Local Conditions on Lidar Turbulence Measurements Compared to Conventional Anemometry